“Nonfarm Payroll waa mid ka mid ah cabbirada ugu muhiimsan ee lagu qiimeeyo xaaladda suuqa shaqada Maraykanka. Haddaba, maxay tahay Nonfarm Payrol , sidee buu u shaqeyaa, maxaase kadhigay muhiimy?
Nonfarm Payroll waa cabbir muujiya tirada shaqaalaha Maraykanka ee ka shaqeeya dhammaan meelaha aan ahayn:[1]
- Beeraha
- Guryaha khaaska ah (sida shaqaalaha guryaha)
- Ururada aan faa’iido doonka ahayn (nonprofits)
- Ganacsatada kaligood shaqaysta (self-employed)
Dadka iskood u shaqeysta sida kuwa leh tukaamo yaryar ama bixiya adeegyo fudud (tusaale: baabuur dhaqid, naqshadeyn freelance, ama tukaan yar), balse aan ganacsigoodu u diiwaangashanayn shirkad rasmi ah.”
- Ciidanka milatariga ee wali ku jira shaqada (active duty)
Waxaa warbixintan diyaariya hay’adda Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), waxaana la sii daayaa maalinta Jimcaha ee ugu horreysa bil kasta, iyadoo lagu saleyo xog laga keenay (household survey iyo establishment survey).
Maxay Muhiim U Tahay?
Nonfarm Payroll waxaa lagu qiimeeyaa:
- Tirada shaqooyinka cusub ee la abuuray ama la sameeyay
- Heerka shaqo la,aanta (unemployment )
- Celceliska Mushaharka shaqaalaha
- Saacadaha la shaqeeyo
Tani waa mid si wayn ay ula socdaan suuqyada maaliyadeed, siyaasiyiinta, iyo bangiyada dhexe sida Federal Reserve, maadaama ay saamayn karto:
- Koritaanka dhaqaalaha (GDP)
- Sicir-bararka (inflation)
- Rajada shaqo helidda
Waxaa Lagu Daaraa?
- Shaqaalaha dowladda (laakiin aan ahayn kuwa milatariga)
- Shirkadaha waawayn iyo kuwa yaryar
- Shaqaalaha ganacsiyada ka diiwaangashan
Waxaa laga reebaa:
- Shaqaalaha beeraha
- Milatariga
- Shaqaalaha guryaha
- Dadka iskood u shaqeysta oo aan shirkad ka diiwaangashnayan
- Shaqaalaha NGOs yada ama nonprofits
Qaybaha Warbixinta
Warbixintu waxay ka kooban tahay laba qaybood oo waaweyn:
1️ Household Survey
Tani waxay diiradda saartaa:
- Heerka shaqo la,aanta (unemployment)
- Shaqo la’aanta ragga, dumarka, dhalinyarada, iyo heerka waxbarasho
- Sababaha shaqo la’aanta
- Heerka ka qaybgalka suuqa shaqada (labor participation rate)
2️ Establishment Survey
Tani waa halka laga helo xogta Nonfarm Payroll-ka lafteeda:
- Tirada shaqooyinka cusub ee la sameeyay bishii tagtay
- Warshadaha shaqooyinka badan sameeyay (tusaale: caafimaadka, adeegyada, waxsoosaarka)
- Celceliska mushaharaadka saacaddii
- Saacadaha la shaqeeyay
Saamaynta Nonfarm Payroll ku Leedahay Suuqa Maaliyadeed
Warbixintan waxay si toos ah u saamaysaa:
- Suuqa saamiyada (stock market)
- Qiimaha doollarka Mareykanka (USD)
- Qiimaha dahabka
- Dulsaarada bonds-ka dowladda
Haddii shaqooyin badan la abuuro → waxay katurjumaysa in dhaqaaluhu kobcayo → suuqyaduna ay sare u kacayaan
Haddii shaqo la’aantu badato → waxay keentaa cabsi iyo hoos u dhac kadhan ah suuqyada
Goorma Ayaa La Sii Daayaa?
Nonfarm Payroll waxaa la shaaciyaa:
- Jimcaha ugu horreeya bil kasta
- Saacadda 8:30 subaxnimo (Eastern Time)
- Waxay ka tarjuntaa xogta bishii hore
Waa maxay Leading Indicator iyo Lagging Indicator?
Leading Indicator (Saadaal Hore)
Waa cabbir dhaqaale oo muujinaya jihada uu dhaqaaluhu u socdo mustaqbalka.
Tusaale:
- Amarada cusub ee warshadaha (new orders)
- Kaydka saamiyada shirkadaha (stock inventory levels)
- Cabirka kalsoonida macaamiisha (consumer confidence)
- Lacagaha la dalbaday ee guryaha cusub
Tusaale:
Haddii dadbadan ay bilaabaan inay dalbadaan alaab ama guryo cusub → dhaqaalaha waxaa laga filan karaa koboc.
Lagging Indicator (Dib u Eegis):
Waa cabbir dhaqaale oo muujinaya wixii hore u dhacay – wuxu tilaama isbeddeladii dhacay, balse ma saadaaliyo waxa iman doona.
👉 Tusaale:
Nonfarm Payroll (tirada shaqo abuur ee lasameeyay)
- Unemployment Rate
- Celceliska Mushaharaadka
- Dulsaarka daymaha la bixiyo
Tusaale:
Haddii shaqooyin badan la sameeyay bishii hore → waxay muujinaysaa in dhaqaaluhu fiicnaa waqtigii la soo dhaafay.
Nonfarm Payroll ma aha saadaal hore (leading indicator), balse waa cabbir dib u eega (lagging indicator) — wuxu sheegaa waxa dhacay, balse ma muujiyo si cad waxa dhici doona mustaqbalka.
Gunaanad
Nonfarm Payroll waa mid ka mid ah warbixinada ugu muhiimsan ee dhaqaalaha Maraykanka.
wuxu muujiyaa sida suuqa shaqadu uu yahay, tirada shaqooyinka cusub ee la helay , mushaharaadka, iyo heerka shaqo la’aanta.
Warbixintan:
- Waa tiir-dhexaadka saadaasha dhaqaalaha
- Waxay muhiim u tahay suuqyada
Q&S
- Sidee ayuu NFP u saameeyaa sicirka doollarka?
Haddii NFP uu noqdo mid ka sarreeya filashada:
Tusaale: Waxaa la filayay in 150,000 shaqo la abuuro, balse warbixintu waxay muujisay 250,000 shaqo.
Maxaa dhaca?
- Waxay muujinaysaa in dhaqaalaha Mareykanku si xooggan u kobcayo.
- Waxana suurta gal ah in Federal Reserve (bangiga dhexe) uu kor u qaado dulsaarka si uu ula dagaalamo sicir-bararka.
2. Goorma ayaa la shaaciyaa warbixinta Nonfarm Payroll?
Jimcaha ugu horreeya bil kasta, 8:30 subaxnimo (Eastern Time).
3. Shaqooyinka laga reebay Nonfarm Payroll?
shaqooyinka aan lagu darin NFP waxa kamid ah : shaqaalaha beeraha, ciidamada milatariga, Shaqaalaha guryaha ,Dadka iskood u shaqeysta
CTA
💬 Maxaad ka aaminsan tahay warbixinta Nonfarm Payroll? Noogu reeb aragtidaada qeybta hoose – ama akhri maqaalkeenna ku saabsan “ cpi da dalka marykanka ” si aad u hesho faham dhammaystiran.
#DhaqaalahaUSA#WarbixinShaqooyinka#ShaqooyinCusub#NFP2025#FalanqaynDhaqaale#FederalReserve#SicirBarar
